Insomnia Case Study: How to Predict Sleepless Nights

I have had insomnia for years and used to experience as many as 8 sleepless nights a month. Losing so many nights of sleep to insomnia was not sustainable, and I was having a harder and harder time managing my energy levels and avoiding burnout. So I set out with the intention to record my insomnia for a few years to see if there was a pattern and if I could uncover anything that would help me better understand and predict my sleepless nights.

m Insomnia Case Study: How To Predict Sleepless Nights graphic by Kenise, ATSO

GOAL

The goal of this study was to record and assemble enough data to help predict sleepless nights and hopefully understand how to lessen the total amount of sleepless nights experienced, or at least prepare for them better.

PROCESS

First, I tracked my insomnia-induced sleepless nights (anytime I couldn’t fall asleep after midnight) from February 2021 to December 2023 using the self-report method in my bullet journal.

For the year of 2021, I recorded all of my sleepless nights. After analyzing the data from 2021, I realized that some of the dates I experienced sleepless nights coincided with the four main moon phases (new moon, first quarter moon, full moon, third quarter moon). So in 2022, I also began noting down the four main phases in the moon cycle, including the time of the moon’s peak, as well as the date.

This addition to my data collection was also inspired in part by my discovery of studies on how some people with bipolar disorder’s mood changes from depression to mania can be linked to the moon cycle. Since we humans are 75% water, and the moon’s pull is strong enough to influence the oceans and create the tides, then it didn’t seem like too much of a leap to me that the moon could also be ‘pulling’ me awake at times.

Screenshot of all the insomnia data I self-reported throughout 2021-2023 by Sara, ATSO

The data shown above is the data I self-reported in my bullet journal and then transferred into a GSheet.

*I may have forgotten to track data for November 2022, so I did not include this month when considering overall data trends.

**I also noted which days I experienced both insomnia and my period beginning in 2023.

RESULTS

In 2021, I had no data for January, 6 sleepless nights in February, 8 in March, 3 in April, 2 in May, 6 in June, 4 in July, 3 in August, 1 in September, 3 in October, 7 in November, and 5 in December.

Chart of Total Insomnia Nights 2021 by Sara, ATSO

In 2022, I had 5 sleepless nights in January, 3 in February, 4 in March, 4 in April, 2 in May, 4 in June, 1 in July, 4 in August, 5 in September, 3 in October, I forgot to track the sleepless nights in November, and 3 in December.

Chart of Total Insomnia Nights 2022 by Sara, ATSO

In 2023, I had 6 sleepless nights in January, 5 in February, 5 in March, 5 in April, 6 in May, 6 in June, 0 in July, 3 in August, 2 in September, 3 in October, 6 in November, and 3 in December.

Chart of Total Insomnia Nights 2023 by Sara, ATSO

The main trend I noticed is a pattern of the average insomnia nights per month oscillating between high and low numbers throughout the year. I also noticed there were four main peak months with the highest number of insomnia months roughly matching the pattern of the four seasons. These months were January (Winter), March (Spring), June (Summer), and November (Fall).

Chart of Total Insomnia Nights 2021-2023 by Sara, ATSO

Chart of Average Insomnia Nights per Month by Sara, ATSO

It also seems that insomnia was more likely on a night where the time of the moon’s peak was closer to midnight (within 3 hours or so). Additionally, I noticed that my sleepless nights often came in pairs of 2 or 3 back-to-back sleepless nights, often around a peak main moon phase within a few hours of midnight. One such example is on April 1, 2022 when the peak of the new moon was at 2:27am and I had sleepless nights the 1st-3rd. Another example is April 6, 2023 when the peak of the full moon was 12:34am and I had sleepless nights the 4th-5th and 7th-8th. 

Finally, I also noticed that sleepless nights frequently coincide within 2 days of the 4 main moon phases. For example, if the full moon was on the 5th, sleepless nights on the 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th days were more likely. With this rule in mind, in total for 2022 there were 5 new moons that coincided with sleepless nights, 4 first quarter moons, 5 full moons, and 5 third quarter moons. In total for 2023, there were 3 new moons that coincided with sleepless nights, 6 first quarter moons, 7 full moons, and 3 third quarter moons. Overall, the full moons and the first quarter moons seem to coincide most with sleepless nights, followed by new moons and third quarter moons.

I have also noted the sleepless nights that coincided within 1 day of the 4 main moon phases. For example, if the new moon was on the 5th, sleepless nights on the 4th and 6th were more likely. With this rule in mind, in total for 2022 there were 3 new moons that coincided with sleepless nights, 3 first quarter moons, 4 full moons, and 2 third quarter moons. In total for 2023, there were 3 new moons that coincided with sleepless nights, 5 first quarter moons, 4 full moons, and 3 third quarter moons. Overall, the full moons and first quarter moons seem to coincide most with sleepless nights, followed by new moons and third quarter moons.

CONCLUSION + TAKEAWAY

While this is a case study using the self-report measure and is therefore not strong in validity and external generalizability, I do think it highlights that there are trends and patterns to insomnia and sleepless nights that warrant future research.

The main conclusions I drew from this case study’s results were that insomnia often comes in sets of 2 or 3 nights, peaks once every season, and that my insomnia is more likely to occur within 24-48 hours of the peak of the main four moon phases: the new moon, first quarter moon, full moon, and third quarter moon. The latter seemed to be even more likely if the moon’s peak was closer to midnight.

Knowing this information has definitely helped me lessen the impact of my insomnia and the frequency of sleepless nights I experience. Now, whenever it’s past midnight and I still can’t fall asleep, I check to see if I am within 24-48 hours of a main moon phase peak, and if so, instead of trying to force myself to sleep, I allow myself to get up and take a break in a different way. I might read, go on my phone, watch some tv, clean, play a video game, write, knit, paint, anything to relax my brain. Then I try to fall asleep again after at least 30 minutes to a few hours, and am usually a lot more successful. This also alleviates the guilt and frustration I feel for not being able to fall asleep due to my insomnia. I never realized before this case study how much energy I spent being frustrated and anxious about my insomnia. I have also realized that I fall asleep faster when I take a break from trying to sleep than when I lie in bed for hours anxious about not being able to fall asleep.

Insomnia is not guaranteed on these nights, but more likely on these nights, so it can be helpful to check the correlation to the peak of the four main moon phases to better understand, prepare for, and avoid sleepless nights. 

To find this information, you can typically do a Google search for the current date and the term “moon phase”. There are also several moon phase calendars, apps, and websites available.

Photo of dog sleeping in bed by Vlad Tchompalov via Unsplash

FUTURE RESEARCH

There is not much existing extensive research on insomnia, and less so on predicting sleepless nights. Since a pattern was noticed in this case study, I would love to conduct another study in the future with a larger sample size and more precise recording measures to assemble more data with stronger validity and reliability.

At ATSO, one of our long-term goals is to open an ATSO psychiatric and psychoanalytic research laboratory to innovate and support better mental health treatments. This would also allow us to conduct more mental health focused studies with the goal of improving the overall wellbeing and day-to-day function of those experiencing mental health issues.

Thank you for reading, and I hope you have found this insomnia case study interesting and helpful. Here’s to fewer sleepless nights!

Always yours,

Sara, ATSO

Want more ATSO mental health blog posts? Here you go! Want to show your Stubborn Optimist spirit and support our mental health mission? Visit our ATSO Shop!